Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Holcomb, Karen M.; Mathis, Sarabeth; Staples, J. Erin; Fischer, Marc; Barker, Christopher M.; Beard, Charles B.; Nett, Randall J.; Keyel, Alexander C.; Marcantonio, Matteo; Childs, Marissa L.; Gorris, Morgan E.; Rochlin, Ilia; Hamins-Puértolas, Marco; Ray, Evan L.; Uelmen, Johnny A.; DeFelice, Nicholas; Freedman, Andrew S.; Hollingsworth, Brandon D.; Das, Praachi; Osthus, Dave; Humphreys, John M.; Nova, Nicole; Mordecai, Erin A.; Cohnstaedt, Lee W.; Kirk, Devin; Kramer, Laura D.; Harris, Mallory J.; Kain, Morgan P.; Reed, Emily M. X.; Johansson, Michael A.

doi:10.1186/s13071-022-05630-y

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Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

2023
By Holcomb, Karen M. ; Mathis, Sarabeth ; Staples, J. Erin ; ...
Source: Parasites & Vectors, 16(1)

[PDF-1.85 MB]

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Journal Title:

Parasites & Vectors
Personal Author:

Holcomb, Karen M. ; Mathis, Sarabeth ; Staples, J. Erin ; Fischer, Marc ; Barker, Christopher M. ; ... More +

Holcomb, Karen M. ; Mathis, Sarabeth ; Staples, J. Erin ; Fischer, Marc ; Barker, Christopher M. ; Beard, Charles B. ; Nett, Randall J. ; Keyel, Alexander C. ; Marcantonio, Matteo ; Childs, Marissa L. ; Gorris, Morgan E. ; Rochlin, Ilia ; Hamins-Puértolas, Marco ; Ray, Evan L. ; Uelmen, Johnny A. ; DeFelice, Nicholas ; Freedman, Andrew S. ; Hollingsworth, Brandon D. ; Das, Praachi ; Osthus, Dave ; Humphreys, John M. ; Nova, Nicole ; Mordecai, Erin A. ; Cohnstaedt, Lee W. ; Kirk, Devin ; Kramer, Laura D. ; Harris, Mallory J. ; Kain, Morgan P. ; Reed, Emily M. X. ; Johansson, Michael A. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement.
Keywords:

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General Veterinary Infectious Diseases Parasitology
Source:

Parasites & Vectors, 16(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05630-y
ISSN:

1756-3305
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16OAR4310253 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4310253B ; Grant no. NA20OAR4310253C

Grant no. NA16OAR4310253 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4310253B ; Grant no. NA20OAR4310253C Less -
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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urn:sha256:9673ece9879ba87c4254e31058c0ffb9503f11b03201907344cb3dc45ed301e7
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/59152/noaa_59152_DS1.pdf
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Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

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