Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific

Wu, Xian; Yeager, Stephen G.; Deser, Clara; Rosenbloom, Nan; Meehl, Gerald A.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.add9364

i

Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific

2023
By Wu, Xian ; Yeager, Stephen G. ; Deser, Clara ; ...

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Journal Title:

Science Advances
Personal Author:

Wu, Xian ; Yeager, Stephen G. ; Deser, Clara ; Rosenbloom, Nan ; Meehl, Gerald A.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.
Keywords:

Multidisciplinary
Source:

Science Advances, 9(15)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add9364
ISSN:

2375-2548
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA20OAR4310408
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:b6d623d610975259f7d3c4bec9d68795b32c729744f92c14493169d87d9e7754
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/59132/noaa_59132_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.56 MB ]

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