High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system

Lovenduski, Nicole S; Bonan, Gordon B; Yeager, Stephen G; Lindsay, Keith; Lombardozzi, Danica L

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c55

i

High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system

2019
By Lovenduski, Nicole S ; Bonan, Gordon B ; Yeager, Stephen G ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Environmental Research Letters
Personal Author:

Lovenduski, Nicole S ; Bonan, Gordon B ; Yeager, Stephen G ; Lindsay, Keith ; Lombardozzi, Danica L
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Interannual variations in the flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the land surface and the atmosphere are the dominant component of interannual variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Here, we investigate the potential to predict variations in these terrestrial carbon fluxes 1–10 years in advance using a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of an Earth system model. We demonstrate that globally-integrated net ecosystem production (NEP) exhibits high potential predictability for 2 years following forecast initialization. This predictability exceeds that from a persistence or uninitialized forecast conducted with the same Earth system model. The potential predictability in NEP derives mainly from high predictability in ecosystem respiration, which itself is driven by vegetation carbon and soil moisture initialization. Our findings unlock the potential to forecast the terrestrial ecosystem in a changing environment.
Keywords:

General Environmental Science Public Health, Environmental And Occupational Health Renewable Energy, Sustainability And The Environment Public Health, Environmental And Occupational Health Renewable Energy, Sustainability And The Environment Public Health, Environmental And Occupational Health Renewable Energy, Sustainability And The Environment
Source:

Environmental Research Letters, 14(12), 124074
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c55
ISSN:

1748-9326
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

IOP Publishing
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA09OAR4310163
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:7de3c0fe3f780190754084dfeb41ed28d14b1ace97710e93880aea655dbf1c67
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/58914/noaa_58914_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.50 MB ]

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