Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

Hatchett, Benjamin J.; Rhoades, Alan M.; McEvoy, Daniel J.

doi:10.3390/hydrology9090155

i

Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

2022
By Hatchett, Benjamin J. ; Rhoades, Alan M. ; McEvoy, Daniel J.

Details

Journal Title:

Hydrology
Personal Author:

Hatchett, Benjamin J. ; Rhoades, Alan M. ; McEvoy, Daniel J.
NOAA Program & Office:

NOAA General Documents
Description:

Snowpack loss in midlatitude mountains is ubiquitously projected by Earth system models, though the magnitudes, persistence, and time horizons of decline vary. Using daily downscaled hydroclimate and snow projections, we examine changes in snow seasonality across the U.S. Pacific Southwest region during a simulated severe 20-year dry spell in the 21st century (2051–2070) developed as part of the 4th California Climate Change Assessment to provide a “stress test” for water resources. Across California’s mountains, substantial declines (30–100% loss) in median peak annual snow water equivalent accompany changes in snow seasonality throughout the region compared to the historic period. We find that 80% of historic seasonal snowpacks transition to ephemeral conditions. Subsetting empirical-statistical wildfire projections for California by snow seasonality transition regions indicates a two-to-four-fold increase in the area burned, consistent with recent observations of high elevation wildfires following extended drought conditions. By analyzing six of the major California snow-fed river systems, we demonstrate snowpack reductions and seasonality transitions result in concomitant declines in annual runoff (47–58% of historical values). The negative impacts to statewide water supply reliability by the projected dry spell will likely be magnified by changes in snowpack seasonality and increased wildfire activity.
Keywords:

Earth-Surface Processes Oceanography Waste Management And Disposal Water Science And Technology Waste Management And Disposal Water Science And Technology Waste Management And Disposal Water Science And Technology
Source:

Hydrology, 9(9), 155
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9090155
ISSN:

2306-5338
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

MDPI AG
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:b819fc57c86d184b651c01406219dacd2052c35f17bae64761239df473b9f7a1
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/58686/noaa_58686_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 5.98 MB ]

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