Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California

Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Hatchett, Benjamin; Shulgina, Tamara; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Guzman-Morales, Janin; Aguilera, Rosana; Clemesha, Rachel; Corringham, Thomas W.; Delle Monache, Luca; Reynolds, David; Tardy, Alex; Small, Ivory; Ralph, F. Martin

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7

i

Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California

2022
By Guirguis, Kristen ; Gershunov, Alexander ; Hatchett, Benjamin ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Climate Dynamics
Personal Author:

Guirguis, Kristen ; Gershunov, Alexander ; Hatchett, Benjamin ; Shulgina, Tamara ; DeFlorio, Michael J. ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Guzman-Morales, Janin ; Aguilera, Rosana ; Clemesha, Rachel ; Corringham, Thomas W. ; Delle Monache, Luca ; Reynolds, David ; Tardy, Alex ; Small, Ivory ; Ralph, F. Martin
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and out of phase with each other during the season, resulting in distinct weather patterns that recur throughout the historical record. Some phase combinations favor atmospheric river landfalls and extreme daily or multi-day precipitation, while other phase combinations favor anomalously hot weather and drying Santa Ana wind conditions over Southern California. This historical perspective of atmospheric circulation and impacts over 70 years reveals that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances wildfire hazard in California, while the frequency of weather patterns linked to historical floods is not diminishing. These changes highlight the rising hazards of cascading weather extremes in California’s present and future.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science
Source:

Climate Dynamics, 60(5-6), 1729-1749
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7
ISSN:

0930-7575 ; 1432-0894
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA11OAR43101 ; Grant no. NA17OAR4310284
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:e27ce043b5ebe129f78c6e8057a9fba054f754484a652ee3c8453313ddefac18
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/58635/noaa_58635_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 7.88 MB ]

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