Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Jiang, Xianan; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Neelin, J. David; Wu, Longtao; Tsushima, Yoko; Elsaesser, Gregory

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0

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Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

2023
By Jiang, Xianan ; Su, Hui ; Jiang, Jonathan H. ; ...
Source: Nature Communications, 14(1)

[PDF-2.39 MB]

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Journal Title:

Nature Communications
Personal Author:

Jiang, Xianan ; Su, Hui ; Jiang, Jonathan H. ; Neelin, J. David ; Wu, Longtao ; ... More +

Jiang, Xianan ; Su, Hui ; Jiang, Jonathan H. ; Neelin, J. David ; Wu, Longtao ; Tsushima, Yoko ; Elsaesser, Gregory Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS < 3.3 K. The distinct seasonality in extratropical LCF in climate models is ascribed to their different prevailing cloud regimes governing the extratropical LCF variability.
Keywords:

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General Biochemistry, Genetics And Molecular Biology General Chemistry General Physics And Astronomy Multidisciplinary
Source:

Nature Communications, 14(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0
ISSN:

2041-1723
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PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA20OAR4310394
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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urn:sha256:3f398bb6f8d37da161400a6389c47d354508a5ba0143fa3362b8744d0563b42d
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Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

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