Projected increases in western US forest fire despite growing fuel constraints

Abatzoglou, John T.; Battisti, David S.; Williams, A. Park; Hansen, Winslow D.; Harvey, Brian J.; Kolden, Crystal A.

doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00299-0

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Projected increases in western US forest fire despite growing fuel constraints

2021
By Abatzoglou, John T. ; Battisti, David S. ; Williams, A. Park ; ...
Source: Communications Earth & Environment, 2(1)

[PDF-878.28 KB]

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Journal Title:

Communications Earth & Environment
Personal Author:

Abatzoglou, John T. ; Battisti, David S. ; Williams, A. Park ; Hansen, Winslow D. ; Harvey, Brian J. ; ... More +

Abatzoglou, John T. ; Battisti, David S. ; Williams, A. Park ; Hansen, Winslow D. ; Harvey, Brian J. ; Kolden, Crystal A. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Escalating burned area in western US forests punctuated by the 2020 fire season has heightened the need to explore near-term macroscale forest-fire area trajectories. As fires remove fuels for subsequent fires, feedbacks may impose constraints on the otherwise climate-driven trend of increasing forest-fire area. Here, we test how fire-fuel feedbacks moderate near-term (2021–2050) climate-driven increases in forest-fire area across the western US. Assuming constant fuels, climate–fire models project a doubling of forest-fire area compared to 1991–2020. Fire-fuel feedbacks only modestly attenuate the projected increase in forest-fire area. Even models with strong feedbacks project increasing interannual variability in forest-fire area and more than a two-fold increase in the likelihood of years exceeding the 2020 fire season. Fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks are unlikely to strongly constrain the profound climate-driven broad-scale increases in forest-fire area by the mid-21st century, highlighting the need for proactive adaptation to increased western US forest-fire impacts.
Keywords:

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General Earth And Planetary Sciences General Environmental Science
Source:

Communications Earth & Environment, 2(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00299-0
ISSN:

2662-4435
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA19OAR4310278
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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Library
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urn:sha256:1b046793575424079f76203bd8e5288101d4098a6859bac09cb46ad7654bb342
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/58503/noaa_58503_DS1.pdf
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Projected increases in western US forest fire despite growing fuel constraints

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