ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme  weather events into a warmer world

Hawkins, Ed; Compo, Gilbert P.; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.

doi:10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023

i

ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world

Supporting Files

2023
By Hawkins, Ed ; Compo, Gilbert P. ; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.

Details

Journal Title:

Earth System Dynamics
Personal Author:

Hawkins, Ed ; Compo, Gilbert P. ; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
Description:

A new reanalysis-based approach is proposed to examine how reconstructions of extreme weather events differ in warmer or cooler counter-factual worlds. This approach offers a novel way to develop plausible storylines for some types of extreme event that other methods may not be suitable for. As a proof of concept, a reanalysis of a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 is translated into a warmer world where it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.
Keywords:

General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Source:

Earth System Dynamics, 14(5), 1081-1084
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023
ISSN:

2190-4987
Publisher:

Copernicus GmbH
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA22OAR4320151
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:5c32bb7e3384ce97e5788300af110b70eee1bb82171f268a5e63f4b4cfdba152
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/58155/noaa_58155_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.24 MB ]

Machine readable version (XML)

Download

ON THIS PAGE

Details Supporting Files

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.