Inter‐Annual Variability in Atmospheric Transport Complicates Estimation of US Methane Emissions Trends

Feng, Leyang; Tavakkoli, Sakineh; Jordaan, Sarah M.; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Benmergui, Joshua S.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zhang, Mingyang; Gaeta, Dylan C.; Miller, Scot M.

doi:10.1029/2022gl100366

i

Inter‐Annual Variability in Atmospheric Transport Complicates Estimation of US Methane Emissions Trends

Supporting Files

2023
By Feng, Leyang ; Tavakkoli, Sakineh ; Jordaan, Sarah M. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Feng, Leyang ; Tavakkoli, Sakineh ; Jordaan, Sarah M. ; Andrews, Arlyn E. ; Benmergui, Joshua S. ; Waugh, Darryn W. ; Zhang, Mingyang ; Gaeta, Dylan C. ; Miller, Scot M.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GML (Global Monitoring Laboratory)
Description:

US natural gas production increased by ∼43% between 2005 and 2015, but there is disagreement among existing studies on whether this growth led to increased methane emissions. We evaluate the likely contributions of atmospheric transport to an upward trend in atmospheric methane enhancements during 2007–2015, defined as the contribution of North American emissions to atmospheric observations across the US. We find that interannual variability (IAV) in transport yields an apparent upward trend in enhancements across much of the US during this time and can explain disagreements among existing studies over emissions trends. We further find that enhancements at satellite and in situ monitoring sites are 19% higher during El Niño than La Niña, possibly because air masses spend more time over North America on average during some years. The results show that accurate modeling of IAV in transport is a key prerequisite to quantifying emissions trends.
Keywords:

General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics General Earth And Planetary Sciences General Earth And Planetary Sciences
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 50(14)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100366
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:40cba43455e1dcb2cee68cd6c9f3c65d672fdb507d9fa43374e8cab1e605310c
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/58102/noaa_58102_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 1010.49 KB ]

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