Modeling harmful algal blooms in a changing climate
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

For very narrow results

When looking for a specific result

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields



Document Data
Clear All
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page


Modeling harmful algal blooms in a changing climate

Filetype[PDF-661.42 KB]


  • Journal Title:
    Harmful Algae
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    This review assesses harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling in the context of climate change, examining modeling methodologies that are currently being used, approaches for representing climate processes, and time scales of HAB model projections. Statistical models are most commonly used for near-term HAB forecasting and resource management, but statistical models are not well suited for longer-term projections as forcing conditions diverge from past observations. Process-based models are more complex, difficult to parameterize, and require extensive calibration, but can mechanistically project HAB response under changing forcing conditions. Nevertheless, process-based models remain prone to failure if key processes emerge with climate change that were not identified in model development based on historical observations. We review recent studies on modeling HABs and their response to climate change, and the various statistical and process-based approaches used to link global climate model projections and potential HAB response. We also make several recommendations for how the field can move forward: 1) use process-based models to explicitly represent key physical and biological factors in HAB development, including evaluating HAB response to climate change in the context of the broader ecosystem; 2) quantify and convey model uncertainty using ensemble approaches and scenario planning; 3) use robust approaches to downscale global climate model results to the coastal regions that are most impacted by HABs; and 4) evaluate HAB models with long-term observations, which are critical for assessing long-term trends associated with climate change and far too limited in extent.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Harmful Algae, 91, 101729
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
  • Format:
  • Publisher:
  • Document Type:
  • Rights Information:
    Accepted Manuscript
  • Compliance:
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files
More +

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at

Version 3.26.1