Details:

Journal Title:
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Personal Author:
Lu, Junyu ; Carbone, Gregory J. ; Huang, Xiao ; Lackstrom, Kirsten ; Gao, Peng
Lu, Junyu ; Carbone, Gregory J. ; Huang, Xiao ; Lackstrom, Kirsten ; Gao, Peng Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
NOAA General Documents
Description:
Drought is a devastating natural hazard posing great threats to agriculture. Identifying the spatial pattern of agricultural sensitivity to drought can provide scientific information for decision-makers to prepare droughts, allocate resources, and mitigate impacts. Here, we use long-term state- and county-level crop data for the 10 major crops: corn grain, soybeans, hay, spring wheat, winter wheat, cotton, corn silage, sorghum, barley, and rice in the United States from 1950 to 2016. First, we perform a correlation analysis between crop yield anomalies and two drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)) to identify the sub-seasonal pattern of agricultural sensitivity to drought stress. SPEI performs better than SPI. For most crops, the sensitivity to drought increases in the early period, peaks at the critical months, and then declines. July is the most critical month for crop growth for most crops. Among all crops, soybean and corn grain are most sensitive to drought. Second, we develop an Agriculture Drought Sensitivity Index (ADSI) to quantitatively measure the sensitivity of agriculture to drought stress based on the statistical relationship between the ten major crops and SPEI. We demonstrate that there exists a very strong spatial correspondence between higher sensitivity to drought and the lower percentage of acres irrigated, and vice versa. Also, for those regions with limited irrigation, the sensitivity is higher in arid/semi-arid regions and lower in humid regions in summer. Third, given the importance of irrigation, an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) shows that the irrigated crop yields have much higher long-run mean yields than non-irrigated crop yields. Fourth, to investigate how irrigation affects drought sensitivity, a panel data regression model shows that the responses of crop growth to drought are non-linear for all crops. Non-irrigated crops are more sensitive to droughts than the irrigated crops, particularly in severe drought conditions. This provides quantitative incentive to use irrigation as an important adaptation and coping strategy to mitigate the drought impacts on agriculture in the US.
Keywords:
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Agronomy And Crop Science Atmospheric Science Forestry Global And Planetary Change
Source:
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 292-293, 108124
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108124
ISSN:
0168-1923
Format:
PDF
Publisher:
Elsevier BV
Document Type:
Journal Article
Rights Information:
Accepted Manuscript
Compliance:
Library
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:a1ac3bd977cfbc6092a7e77281f4f11fb11f6c8b5341ea97b1b5afed32fe9f70
Download URL:
https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/57342/noaa_57342_DS1.pdf
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