A double bootstrap approach to Superposed Epoch Analysis to evaluate response uncertainty

Rao, Mukund P.; Cook, Edward R.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; D’Arrigo, Rosanne D.; Krusic, Paul J.; LeGrande, Allegra N.

doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2019.05.001

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A double bootstrap approach to Superposed Epoch Analysis to evaluate response uncertainty

2019
By Rao, Mukund P. ; Cook, Edward R. ; Cook, Benjamin I. ; ...
Source: Dendrochronologia, 55, 119-124

[PDF-341.67 KB]

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Journal Title:

Dendrochronologia
Personal Author:

Rao, Mukund P. ; Cook, Edward R. ; Cook, Benjamin I. ; Anchukaitis, Kevin J. ; D’Arrigo, Rosanne D. ; ... More +

Rao, Mukund P. ; Cook, Edward R. ; Cook, Benjamin I. ; Anchukaitis, Kevin J. ; D’Arrigo, Rosanne D. ; Krusic, Paul J. ; LeGrande, Allegra N. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

The association between climate variability and episodic events, such as the antecedent moisture conditions prior to wildfire or the cooling following volcanic eruptions, is commonly assessed using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA). In SEA the epochal response is typically calculated as the average climate conditions prior to and following all event years or their deviation from climatology. However, the magnitude and significance of the inferred climate association may be sensitive to the selection or omission of individual key years, potentially resulting in a biased assessment of the relationship between these events and climate. Here we describe and test a modified double-bootstrap SEA that generates multiple unique draws of the key years and evaluates the sign, magnitude, and significance of event-climate relationships within a probabilistic framework. This multiple resampling helps quantify multiple uncertainties inherent in conventional applications of SEA within dendrochronology and paleoclimatology. We demonstrate our modified SEA by evaluating the volcanic cooling signal in a Northern Hemisphere tree-ring temperature reconstruction and the link between drought and wildfire events in the western United States. Finally, we make our Matlab and R code available to be adapted for future SEA applications.
Keywords:

[+]

Ecology Plant Science
Source:

Dendrochronologia, 55, 119-124
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2019.05.001
ISSN:

1125-7865
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4310420
Rights Information:

Accepted Manuscript
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Library
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urn:sha256:91e155d63000f659e18c753d585a5ac9a2919387362c7f2b1ad832a8d326b71b
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/57257/noaa_57257_DS1.pdf
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A double bootstrap approach to Superposed Epoch Analysis to evaluate response uncertainty

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