Regional and Seasonal Biases in Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts of Near-Surface Temperature and Moisture

Wade, A.R.; Jirak, I.L.; Lyza, A.W.

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-23-0120.1

i

Regional and Seasonal Biases in Convection-Allowing Model Forecasts of Near-Surface Temperature and Moisture

2023
By Wade, A.R. ; Jirak, I.L. ; Lyza, A.W.
Source Wea. Forecasting, 38, 2415–2426
Available in CDC Stacks on 2024-06-01T00:00:00Z

[PDF - 30.51 MB]

Details

Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Wade, A.R. ; Jirak, I.L. ; Lyza, A.W.
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations)
Description:

This study investigates regional, seasonal biases in convection-allowing model forecasts of near-surface temperature and dewpoint in areas of particular importance to forecasts of severe local storms. One method compares model forecasts with objective analyses of observed conditions in the inflow sectors of reported tornadoes. A second method captures a broader sample of environments, comparing model forecasts with surface observations under certain warm-sector criteria. Both methods reveal a cold bias across all models tested in Southeast U.S. cool-season warm sectors. This is an operationally important bias given the thermodynamic sensitivity of instability-limited severe weather that is common in the Southeast cool season. There is not a clear bias across models in the Great Plains warm season, but instead more varied behavior with differing model physics.
Keywords:
Source:

Wea. Forecasting, 38, 2415–2426
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0120.1
Format:

PDF
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16OAR4320115
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/56254/noaa_56254_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 30.51 MB]
Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; National Weather Service (NWS)
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:60b00f6eee2942fc15471fe9abfab0349ecb49fcf30f3a45a6115e0bb34176be

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