2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S)

Hazelton, Andrew; Alaka, Ghassan J.; Gramer, Lew; Ramstrom, William; Ditchek, Sarah; Chen, Xiaomin; Liu, Bin; Zhang, Zhan; Zhu, Lin; Wang, Weiguo; Thomas, Biju; Shin, JungHoon; Wang, Chuan-Kai; Kim, Hyun-Sook; Zhang, Xuejin; Mehra, Avichal; Marks, Frank D.; Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman

doi:10.3389/feart.2023.1264969

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2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S)

2023
By Hazelton, Andrew ; Alaka, Ghassan J. ; Gramer, Lew ; ...
Source: Frontiers in Earth Science, 11

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Journal Title:

Frontiers in Earth Science
Personal Author:

Hazelton, Andrew ; Alaka, Ghassan J. ; Gramer, Lew ; Ramstrom, William ; Ditchek, Sarah ; ... More +

Hazelton, Andrew ; Alaka, Ghassan J. ; Gramer, Lew ; Ramstrom, William ; Ditchek, Sarah ; Chen, Xiaomin ; Liu, Bin ; Zhang, Zhan ; Zhu, Lin ; Wang, Weiguo ; Thomas, Biju ; Shin, JungHoon ; Wang, Chuan-Kai ; Kim, Hyun-Sook ; Zhang, Xuejin ; Mehra, Avichal ; Marks, Frank D. ; Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; ... More +

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) Less -
Description:

During the 2022 hurricane season, real-time forecasts were conducted using an experimental version of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). The version of HAFS detailed in this paper (HAFSV0.3S, hereafter HAFS-S) featured the moving nest recently developed at NOAA AOML, and also model physics upgrades: TC-specific modifications to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and introduction of the Thompson microphysics scheme. The real-time forecasts covered a large dataset of cases across the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific 2022 hurricane seasons, providing an opportunity to evaluate this version of HAFS ahead of planned operational implementation of a similar version in 2023. The track forecast results show that HAFS-S outperformed the 2022 version of the operational HWRF model in the Atlantic, and was the best of several regional hurricane models in the eastern North Pacific for track. The intensity results were more mixed, with a dropoff in skill at Days 4–5 in the Atlantic but increased skill in the eastern North Pacific. HAFS-S also showed some larger errors than the long-time operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model in the radius of 34-knot wind, but other radii metrics are improved. Detailed analysis of Hurricane Ian in the Atlantic highlights both the strengths of HAFS and opportunities for further development and improvement.
Keywords:

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General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Source:

Frontiers in Earth Science, 11
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969
ISSN:

2296-6463
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Frontiers Media SA
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA22OAR4050668D ; Grant no. NA19OAR0220187 ; Grant no. NA19OAR0220188 ; Grant no. NA20OAR4320472

Grant no. NA22OAR4050668D ; Grant no. NA19OAR0220187 ; Grant no. NA19OAR0220188 ; Grant no. NA20OAR4320472 Less -
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha-512:33f96a4d8aba8d857aec23b339021d901867ca289cbc16f5805f88a23c1f28669f352bb61a627705665fdbef46b4103a1211079f492490b9bb1951f26f913667
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/55790/noaa_55790_DS1.pdf
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2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S)

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