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A procedure to reduce northward drift of tropical storms in a numerical model
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1992
[PDF-10.79 MB]
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Description:Operational primitive equation models often predict hurricane tracks that lie to the right of the observed motion. Such a bias in the National Meteorological Center’s Quasi-Lagrangian Model (QLM) is most pronounced for the storms that moved westward. It is shown that a westward displacement of the storm’s circulation in the initial analysis significantly contributes to this erroneous motion to the right of the observed track in the QLM. A procedure to reduce this bias for westward moving storms is presented. It consists of imposing a secondary circulation (a dipole) over the initial storm area. The cyclonic (anticycIonic) lobe of the dipole is centered to the south (north) of the observed track. The use of this dipole procedure resulted in a substantial improvement in the forecast track throughout the 72 hour period in several cases.
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Rights Information:CC0 Public Domain
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