Improved Forecast Skill Through the Assimilation of Dropsonde Observations From the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program

Zheng, Minghua; Delle Monache, Luca; Cornuelle, Bruce D.; Ralph, F. Martin; Tallapragada, Vijay S.; Subramanian, Aneesh; Haase, Jennifer S.; Zhang, Zhenhai; Wu, Xingren; Murphy, Michael J.; Higgins, Timothy B.; DeHaan, Laurel

doi:10.1029/2021jd034967

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Improved Forecast Skill Through the Assimilation of Dropsonde Observations From the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program

2021
By Zheng, Minghua ; Delle Monache, Luca ; Cornuelle, Bruce D. ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(21)

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Zheng, Minghua ; Delle Monache, Luca ; Cornuelle, Bruce D. ; Ralph, F. Martin ; Tallapragada, Vijay S. ; ... More +

Zheng, Minghua ; Delle Monache, Luca ; Cornuelle, Bruce D. ; Ralph, F. Martin ; Tallapragada, Vijay S. ; Subramanian, Aneesh ; Haase, Jennifer S. ; Zhang, Zhenhai ; Wu, Xingren ; Murphy, Michael J. ; Higgins, Timothy B. ; DeHaan, Laurel Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Less -
Description:

Landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the western US are responsible for ∼30%–50% of the annual precipitation, and their accurate forecasts are essential for aiding water management decisions and reducing flood risks. Sparse coverage of conventional observations over the Pacific Ocean, which can cause inadequate upstream initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models, may limit the improvement of forecast skill for these events. A targeted field program called AR Reconnaissance (Recon) was initiated in 2016 to better understand and reduce forecast errors of landfalling ARs at 1–5 days lead times. During the winter seasons of 2016, 2018, and 2019, 15 Intensive Observation Periods
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geophysics Space And Planetary Science
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(21)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd034967
ISSN:

2169-897X;2169-8996;
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PDF
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Journal Article
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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urn:sha256:be5f2995109e81b2de9fec0752c532197ab756b41edda75946ce5fa82cd76571
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/55213/noaa_55213_DS1.pdf
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