Multi‐Model Subseasonal Prediction Skill Assessment of Water Vapor Transport Associated With Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western U.S.

Zhang, Zhenhai; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Delle Monache, Luca; Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Ralph, F. Martin; Waliser, Duane E.; Zheng, Minghua; Guan, Bin; Goodman, Alexander; Molod, Andrea M.; Vitart, Frederic; Kumar, Arun; Lin, Hai

doi:10.1029/2022jd037608

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Multi‐Model Subseasonal Prediction Skill Assessment of Water Vapor Transport Associated With Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western U.S.

2023
By Zhang, Zhenhai ; DeFlorio, Michael J. ; Delle Monache, Luca ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(7)

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Zhang, Zhenhai ; DeFlorio, Michael J. ; Delle Monache, Luca ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Ralph, F. Martin ; ... More +

Zhang, Zhenhai ; DeFlorio, Michael J. ; Delle Monache, Luca ; Subramanian, Aneesh C. ; Ralph, F. Martin ; Waliser, Duane E. ; Zheng, Minghua ; Guan, Bin ; Goodman, Alexander ; Molod, Andrea M. ; Vitart, Frederic ; Kumar, Arun ; Lin, Hai Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Less -
Description:

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts of atmospheric rivers (ARs) are in high demand in the water supply management and flood control communities. This study focuses on a new metric, the accumulated water vapor transport associated with ARs, which is closely related to the winter precipitation over the western U.S., and provides a multi-model S2S prediction skill assessment. The prediction skill is evaluated at lead time 1–4 weeks in four dynamical model hindcast data sets from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), and Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at National Aeronautics and Space
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geophysics Space And Planetary Science
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(7)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd037608
ISSN:

2169-897X;2169-8996;
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PDF
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Journal Article
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urn:sha256:b4e59ceaedae5c0e5a30f7d6c9c462d2a12db2f8b6b450c0443a45b119f8d638
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/55202/noaa_55202_DS1.pdf
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