Reducing the Spring Barrier in Predicting Summer Arctic Sea Ice Concentration

Zeng, Jingwen; Yang, Qinghua; Li, Xuewei; Yuan, Xiaojun; Bushuk, Mitchell; Chen, Dake

doi:10.1029/2022gl102115

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Reducing the Spring Barrier in Predicting Summer Arctic Sea Ice Concentration

2023
By Zeng, Jingwen ; Yang, Qinghua ; Li, Xuewei ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 50(8)

[PDF-3.29 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Zeng, Jingwen ; Yang, Qinghua ; Li, Xuewei ; Yuan, Xiaojun ; Bushuk, Mitchell ; ... More +

Zeng, Jingwen ; Yang, Qinghua ; Li, Xuewei ; Yuan, Xiaojun ; Bushuk, Mitchell ; Chen, Dake Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:

The predictive skill of summer sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Arctic presents a steep decline when initialized before June, which is the so-called spring predictability barrier for Arctic sea ice. This study explores the potential influence of surface heat flux, cloud and water vapor anomalies on monthly to seasonal predictions of Arctic SIC anomalies. The results show an enhancement in skill predicting Arctic September SIC in the models that use surface fluxes, clouds, or water vapor in combination with SIC and surface sea temperature as predictors when initialized in boreal spring. This result shows the potential to reduce the spring barrier for Arctic SIC predictions by including the surface heat budget. The enhanced predictive skill can be
Keywords:

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General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 50(8)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102115
ISSN:

0094-8276;1944-8007;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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CC BY-NC-ND
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Library
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:aca582825bc87a177a6c4d20558aafa90c362a53c2306ac599e4d983cceca7bf
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/55171/noaa_55171_DS1.pdf
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