WSR-88D Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part II: Real-Time Applications to Tornado Warning Time Scales

Details

• Journal Title:
  Weather and Forecasting
• Personal Author:
  Smith, Bryan T. ; Thompson, Richard L. ; Speheger, Douglas A. ; Dean, Andrew R. ; Karstens, Christopher D. ; Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center)
• Description:
  A sample of damage-surveyed tornadoes in the contiguous United States (2009–17), containing specific wind speed estimates from damage indicators (DIs) within the Damage Assessment Toolkit dataset, were linked to radar-observed circulations using the nearest WSR-88D data in Part I of this work. The maximum wind speed associated with the highest-rated DI for each radar scan, corresponding 0.5° tilt angle rotational velocity Vrot, significant tornado parameter (STP), and National Weather Service (NWS) convective impact-based warning (IBW) type, are analyzed herein for the sample of cases in Part I and an independent case sample from parts of 2019–20. As Vrot and STP both increase, peak DI-estimated wind speeds and IBW warning type also tend to increase. Different combinations of Vrot, STP, and population density—related to ranges of peak DI wind speed—exhibited a strong ability to discriminate across the tornado damage intensity spectrum. Furthermore, longer duration of high Vrot (i.e., ≥70 kt) in significant tornado environments (i.e., STP ≥ 6) corresponds to increasing chances that DIs will reveal the occurrence of an intense tornado (i.e., EF3+). These findings were corroborated via the independent sample from parts of 2019–20, and can be applied in a real-time operational setting to assist in determining a potential range of wind speeds. This work provides evidence-based support for creating an objective and consistent, real-time framework for assessing and differentiating tornadoes across the tornado intensity spectrum.
• Keywords:
  Atmospheric Science
• Source:
  Weather and Forecasting, 35(6), 2493-2506
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-20-0011.1
• ISSN:
  0882-8156 ; 1520-0434
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  American Meteorological Society
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  Other
• Compliance:
  Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:319dc4099272db99b1e6a2f478a965d06b785a0edcee75617c3910797446c9a2
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/54713/noaa_54713_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 3.16 MB ]