Future Decreases in Freezing Days across North America

Rawlins, Michael A.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.; Kimball, John S.; Robinson, David A.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0802.1

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Future Decreases in Freezing Days across North America

2016
By Rawlins, Michael A. ; Bradley, Raymond S. ; Diaz, Henry F. ; ...
Source: Journal of Climate, 29(19), 6923-6935

[PDF-4.25 MB]

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Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Rawlins, Michael A. ; Bradley, Raymond S. ; Diaz, Henry F. ; Kimball, John S. ; Robinson, David A.

Rawlins, Michael A. ; Bradley, Raymond S. ; Diaz, Henry F. ; Kimball, John S. ; Robinson, David A. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) Less -
Description:

This study used air temperatures from a suite of regional climate models participating in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) together with two atmospheric reanalysis datasets to investigate changes in freezing days (defined as days with daily average temperature below freezing) likely to occur between 30-yr baseline (1971–2000) and midcentury (2041–70) periods across most of North America. Changes in NARCCAP ensemble mean winter temperature show a strong gradient with latitude, with warming of over 4°C near Hudson Bay. The decline in freezing days ranges from less than 10 days across north-central Canada to nearly 90 days in the warmest areas of the continent that currently undergo seasonally freezing conditions. The area experiencing freezing days contracts by 0.9–1.0 × 106 km2 (5.7%–6.4% of the total area). Areas with mean annual temperature between 2° and 6°C and a relatively low rate of change in climatological daily temperatures (<0.2°C day−) near the time of spring thaw will encounter the greatest decreases in freezing days. Advances in the timing of spring thaw will exceed the delay in fall freeze across much of the United States, with the reverse pattern likely over most of Canada.
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Atmospheric Science
Source:

Journal of Climate, 29(19), 6923-6935
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0802.1
ISSN:

0894-8755;1520-0442;
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PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
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Journal Article
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urn:sha256:251e715c4b66928b6e3ce1f0afe31da235a7f5546eebfac37485bca04cc3383d
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/54455/noaa_54455_DS1.pdf
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Future Decreases in Freezing Days across North America

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