A Hybrid Dynamical‐Statistical Model for Advancing Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction Over the Western North Pacific

Qian, Yitian; Hsu, Pang‐Chi; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Xiang, Baoqiang; You, Lijun

doi:10.1029/2020GL090095

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A Hybrid Dynamical‐Statistical Model for Advancing Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction Over the Western North Pacific

2020
By Qian, Yitian ; Hsu, Pang‐Chi ; Murakami, Hiroyuki ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 47(20)

[PDF-1.73 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Qian, Yitian ; Hsu, Pang‐Chi ; Murakami, Hiroyuki ; Xiang, Baoqiang ; You, Lijun

Qian, Yitian ; Hsu, Pang‐Chi ; Murakami, Hiroyuki ; Xiang, Baoqiang ; You, Lijun Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction at the extended ‐range to subseasonal timescale (a week to several weeks) is a gap between weather and climate predictions. The current dynamical prediction systems and statistical models show limited skills in TC genesis forecasting at the lead time of 1–3 weeks. A hybrid dynamical ‐statistical model is developed that reveals capability in predicting basin ‐wide TC frequency in every 10 ‐day period over the western North Paci ﬁca ta2 5 ‐day forecast lead, which is superior to the statistical and dynamical model ‐based predictions examined in this study. In this hybrid model, the cyclogenesis counts for different TC clusters are predicted, respectively, using the statisticalmodels in which the large ‐scale predictors associated with intraseasonal oscillation evolutions are provided
Keywords:

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General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 47(20)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090095
ISSN:

0094-8276;1944-8007;
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PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Journal Article
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Library
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:807e72a25556bbebca9416ba4880beb047e08e08eeefbe0ce39685900cb26ca9
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/54421/noaa_54421_DS1.pdf
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