Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

O’Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Payne, A. E.; Shields, C. A.; Rutz, J. J.; Leung, L.‐R.; Ralph, F. M.; Collow, A.; Gorodetskaya, I.; Guan, B.; Lora, J. M.; McClenny, E.; Nardi, K. M.; Ramos, A. M.; Tomé, R.; Sarangi, C.; Shearer, E. J.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C.; Loring, B.; Huang, H.; Inda‐Díaz, H. A.; Rhoades, A. M.; Zhou, Y.

doi:10.1029/2021jd036013

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Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

2022
By O’Brien, T. A. ; Wehner, M. F. ; Payne, A. E. ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(6)

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

O’Brien, T. A. ; Wehner, M. F. ; Payne, A. E. ; Shields, C. A. ; Rutz, J. J. ; ... More +

O’Brien, T. A. ; Wehner, M. F. ; Payne, A. E. ; Shields, C. A. ; Rutz, J. J. ; Leung, L.‐R. ; Ralph, F. M. ; Collow, A. ; Gorodetskaya, I. ; Guan, B. ; Lora, J. M. ; McClenny, E. ; Nardi, K. M. ; Ramos, A. M. ; Tomé, R. ; Sarangi, C. ; Shearer, E. J. ; Ullrich, P. A. ; Zarzycki, C. ; Loring, B. ; Huang, H. ; Inda‐Díaz, H. A. ; Rhoades, A. M. ; Zhou, Y. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; WR (Western Region)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; WR (Western Region) Less -
Description:

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geophysics Space And Planetary Science
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(6)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd036013
ISSN:

2169-897X;2169-8996;
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PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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Library
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:6e6b40f900f1e40be7e7d987e0bd4f966e5a3674ebe1d6d2eaeb46a417b0c40d
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/54240/noaa_54240_DS1.pdf
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