Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

O’Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Payne, A. E.; Shields, C. A.; Rutz, J. J.; Leung, L.‐R.; Ralph, F. M.; Collow, A.; Gorodetskaya, I.; Guan, B.; Lora, J. M.; McClenny, E.; Nardi, K. M.; Ramos, A. M.; Tomé, R.; Sarangi, C.; Shearer, E. J.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C.; Loring, B.; Huang, H.; Inda‐Díaz, H. A.; Rhoades, A. M.; Zhou, Y.

doi:10.1029/2021jd036013

i

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

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2022
By O’Brien, T. A. ; Wehner, M. F. ; Payne, A. E. ; ...

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

O’Brien, T. A. ; Wehner, M. F. ; Payne, A. E. ; Shields, C. A. ; Rutz, J. J. ; Leung, L.‐R. ; Ralph, F. M. ; Collow, A. ; Gorodetskaya, I. ; Guan, B. ; Lora, J. M. ; McClenny, E. ; Nardi, K. M. ; Ramos, A. M. ; Tomé, R. ; Sarangi, C. ; Shearer, E. J. ; Ullrich, P. A. ; Zarzycki, C. ; Loring, B. ; Huang, H. ; Inda‐Díaz, H. A. ; Rhoades, A. M. ; Zhou, Y.
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; WR (Western Region)
Description:

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geophysics Space And Planetary Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Space And Planetary Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Space And Planetary Science
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(6)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd036013
ISSN:

2169-897X ; 2169-8996
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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Library
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urn:sha256:6e6b40f900f1e40be7e7d987e0bd4f966e5a3674ebe1d6d2eaeb46a417b0c40d
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/54240/noaa_54240_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 17.59 MB ]

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