Seasonal ocean forecasts to improve predictions of Dungeness crab catch rates, co-developed with state and tribal fishery managers

Norton, Emily L; Kaplan, Isaac C; Siedlecki, Samantha; Hermann, Albert J; Alin, Simone R; Newton, Jan; Corbett, Kelly; Ayres, Daniel; Schumacker, Ervin Joe; Bond, Nicholas A; Richerson, Kate; Alexander, Michael A

doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsad010

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

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Seasonal ocean forecasts to improve predictions of Dungeness crab catch rates, co-developed with state and tribal fishery managers

2023
By Norton, Emily L ; Kaplan, Isaac C ; Siedlecki, Samantha ; ...
Source: ICES Journal of Marine Science, 80(4), 823-835

[PDF-3.49 MB]

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Journal Title:

ICES Journal of Marine Science
Personal Author:

Norton, Emily L ; Kaplan, Isaac C ; Siedlecki, Samantha ; Hermann, Albert J ; Alin, Simone R ; ... More +

Norton, Emily L ; Kaplan, Isaac C ; Siedlecki, Samantha ; Hermann, Albert J ; Alin, Simone R ; Newton, Jan ; Corbett, Kelly ; Ayres, Daniel ; Schumacker, Ervin Joe ; Bond, Nicholas A ; Richerson, Kate ; Alexander, Michael A Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CICOES (Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies) ; NWFSC (Northwest Fisheries Science Center) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) ; ... More +

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CICOES (Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies) ; NWFSC (Northwest Fisheries Science Center) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) Less -
Description:

The commercial Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) fishery in Oregon and Washington (USA) is one of the most valuable fisheries in the region, but it experiences high interannual variability. These fluctuations have been attributed to environmental drivers on seasonal and annual timescales. In this study, researchers and state and tribal fisheries managers develop a statistical model for Dungeness crab catch per unit effort (CPUE) to help inform dynamic management decisions in Oregon and Washington. Fishing observations were matched to seasonally forecast and lagged ocean conditions from J-SCOPE, a regional forecast system (http://www.nanoos.org/products/j-scope/). Inclusion of dynamic and lagged ocean conditions improved model skill compared to simpler models, and the best model captured intraseasonal trends and interannual variability in catch rates, and spatial catch patterns. We also found that model skill relied on fishing behaviour, which varies interannually, highlighting the need for advanced fishing behaviour modelling to reduce uncertainty. The relationships between catch rates and ocean conditions may help elucidate environmental influences of catch variability. Forecast products were co-designed with managers to meet their needs for key decision points. Our results illustrate a seasonal forecasting approach for management of other highly productive, but also dynamic, invertebrates that increasingly contribute to global fisheries yield.
Keywords:

[+]

Aquatic Science Ecology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Oceanography
Source:

ICES Journal of Marine Science, 80(4), 823-835
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad010
ISSN:

1054-3139;1095-9289;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Oxford University Press (OUP)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4310112 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4320063

Grant no. NA17OAR4310112 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4320063 Less -
License:

https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Rights Information:

CC0 Public Domain
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:49e42ca99cf5e4aac54e17d323e4e0add983c1e9e0f4b72f0ddaf0808040cea4
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/54231/noaa_54231_DS1.pdf
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Seasonal ocean forecasts to improve predictions of Dungeness crab catch rates, co-developed with state and tribal fishery managers

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