Perturbing Topography in a Convection‐Allowing Ensemble Prediction System for Heavy Rain Forecasts

Details

• Journal Title:
  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• Personal Author:
  Li, Jun ; Du, Jun ; Xiong, Jie ; Wang, Minghuan
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
• Description:
  Four methods to perturb model terrain are demonstrated in a convection-allowing scale (3 km) ensemble prediction system (EPS) for heavy rain forecasts. The impact of methods was examined in terms of ensemble mean, spread-skill relationship and probabilistic forecast. The study was carried out for four major precipitation events. It is found that: (a) using different combinations of topography smoothing and interpolation is a promising way to perturb model topography. Even perturbing the topography alone can greatly improve heavy rain forecasts. The benefit of ensemble forecasts increases with the increase in rainfall amount. (b) Adding random perturbations to model topography is not ideal
• Keywords:
  Atmospheric Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geophysics Space And Planetary Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Space And Planetary Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Space And Planetary Science
• Source:
  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(14)
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033898
• ISSN:
  2169-897X ; 2169-8996
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  American Geophysical Union (AGU)
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  Other
• Compliance:
  Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:649c8a0101175bc8710444fe6e487d0942b46e486398a78f3f42a2157567a38c
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53840/noaa_53840_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 7.04 MB ]