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Perturbing Topography in a Convection‐Allowing Ensemble Prediction System for Heavy Rain Forecasts
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2021
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Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(14)
[PDF-7.04 MB]
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Journal Title:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
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Description:Four methods to perturb model terrain are demonstrated in a convection-allowing scale (3 km) ensemble prediction system (EPS) for heavy rain forecasts. The impact of methods was examined in terms of ensemble mean, spread-skill relationship and probabilistic forecast. The study was carried out for four major precipitation events. It is found that: (a) using different combinations of topography smoothing and interpolation is a promising way to perturb model topography. Even perturbing the topography alone can greatly improve heavy rain forecasts. The benefit of ensemble forecasts increases with the increase in rainfall amount. (b) Adding random perturbations to model topography is not ideal
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Source:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126(14)
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DOI:
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ISSN:2169-897X;2169-8996;
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Rights Information:Other
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Compliance:Library
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