Attributing the U.S. Southwest's Recent Shift Into Drier Conditions

Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Simpson, Isla R.; Terray, Laurent

doi:10.1029/2018gl078312

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Attributing the U.S. Southwest's Recent Shift Into Drier Conditions

2018
By Lehner, Flavio ; Deser, Clara ; Simpson, Isla R. ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 45(12), 6251-6261

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Lehner, Flavio ; Deser, Clara ; Simpson, Isla R. ; Terray, Laurent

Lehner, Flavio ; Deser, Clara ; Simpson, Isla R. ; Terray, Laurent Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

The U.S. Southwest experienced a strong hydroclimate trend from the 1980s to the 2010s, from cool and wet to warm and dry conditions. Attribution of this trend is challenging due to the in ﬂuence of internal variability but desired by water managers eager to plan for robust signals of climate change in thiswater-scarce region. Here we use an empirical method based on constructed circulation analogues to assess the contribution of atmospheric circulation variability to the recent observed hydroclimate trend. Consistent with other studies, we ﬁnd the observed precipitation trend from 1983 to 2012 to be mainly due to internal atmospheric circulation variability that is driven in part by decadal-scale tropical Paci ﬁc sea surface temperature changes. Removing this internal dynamical component brings the observed
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General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 45(12), 6251-6261
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078312
ISSN:

0094-8276;1944-8007;
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PDF
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Journal Article
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urn:sha256:6c3982848a861ab0b34e8668a865363bf847d57e63ff72b6649f7df7a75c43d2
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53805/noaa_53805_DS1.pdf
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