Sources of Subseasonal Predictability over CONUS during Boreal Summer

Krishnamurthy, V.; Meixner, Jessica; Stefanova, Lydia; Wang, Jiande; Worthen, Denise; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Li, Bin; Sluka, Travis; Stan, Cristiana

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0586.1

i

Sources of Subseasonal Predictability over CONUS during Boreal Summer

2021
By Krishnamurthy, V. ; Meixner, Jessica ; Stefanova, Lydia ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Krishnamurthy, V. ; Meixner, Jessica ; Stefanova, Lydia ; Wang, Jiande ; Worthen, Denise ; Moorthi, Shrinivas ; Li, Bin ; Sluka, Travis ; Stan, Cristiana
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
Description:

The predictability of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Coupled Model Prototype 2 developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is assessed for the boreal summer over the continental United States (CONUS). The retrospective forecasts of low-level horizontal wind, precipitation and 2-m temperature for 2011–17 are examined to determine the predictability at subseasonal time scale. Using a data-adaptive method, the leading modes of variability are obtained and identified to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), and warming trend. In a new approach, the sources of enhanced predictability are identified by examining the forecast errors and correlations in the weekly averages of the leading modes of variability. During the boreal summer, the ISO followed by the trend in UFS are found to provide better predictability in weeks 1–4 compared to the ENSO mode and the total anomaly. The western CONUS seems to have better predictability on weekly time scale in all three modes.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science
Source:

Journal of Climate, 34(9), 3273-3294
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0586.1
ISSN:

0894-8755 ; 1520-0442
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18NWS4680069
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:b8570b435ec0235d0e21cc9dea22baa90235c9aee21d2ef2de116f74c1a03e37
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53706/noaa_53706_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 5.19 MB ]

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