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On the Role of Sea Surface Temperature in the Clustering of Global Tropical Cyclone Formation
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2023
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Source: Journal of Climate (2023)
[PDF-4.89 MB]
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Journal Title:Journal of Climate
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Description:This study examines the potential impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulations that are forced by zonal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on global tropical cyclone (TC) formation. Using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM4 model under different SST distributions, it is found that the east-west clustering of global TC formation is mainly governed by large-scale circulations in response to a given SST distribution, instead of direct ocean surface fluxes associated with zonal SST anomalies. Our zonally homogeneous SST simulations in the presence of realistic surface coverage show that TC clusters still emerge as a result of the breakdown of zonal circulations related to land-sea distribution, which produce specific “hot spots” for global TC formation. Sensitivity experiments with different climate warming scenarios and model physics confirm the persistence of these TC clusters in the absence of all zonal SST variations. These robust results offer new insights into the effects of large-scale circulation and terrain forcing on TC clusters beyond the traditional view of direct SST impacts, which are based on the direct alignment of the warmest SST regions and TC clusters. In addition, our experiments also capture internal variability of the global TC frequency, with an average fluctuation of 6-8 TCs at several dominant frequencies of ~3, 6, and 9 years, even in the absence of all SST interannual variability and ocean coupling. This finding reveals an intrinsic “noise” level of the global TC frequency that one has to take into account when examining the past and future trends in TC activity and their related significance or detectability.
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Source:Journal of Climate (2023)
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DOI:
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ISSN:0894-8755;1520-0442;
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Rights Information:Other
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