Prediction skill and predictability of Eurasian snow cover fraction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 reforecasts

He, Qiong; Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Renhe; Yang, Song; Wang, Wanqiu; Zhang, Ruonan; Riddle, Emily E.

doi:10.1002/joc.4618

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Prediction skill and predictability of Eurasian snow cover fraction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 reforecasts

2016
By He, Qiong ; Zuo, Zhiyan ; Zhang, Renhe ; ...
Source: International Journal of Climatology, 36(12), 4071-4084

[PDF-3.02 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

International Journal of Climatology
Personal Author:

He, Qiong ; Zuo, Zhiyan ; Zhang, Renhe ; Yang, Song ; Wang, Wanqiu ; ... More +

He, Qiong ; Zuo, Zhiyan ; Zhang, Renhe ; Yang, Song ; Wang, Wanqiu ; Zhang, Ruonan ; Riddle, Emily E. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Less -
Description:

Eurasian snow cover fraction (SCF) prediction is analyzed using the recently developed National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) monthly retrospective forecasts for 1983–2009. The CFSv2 is generally capable of reproducing the observed Eurasian SCF seasonal cycle and climatology. This study focuses on the prediction skill and predictability of Eurasian SCF in snowmelt and snowfall seasons because theintensivevariabilityoccursinthetwoseasons.TheCFSv2reasonablypredictstheinterannualvariations,long-termtrendand leadingpatterninsnowmeltseasonseveralmonthsahead.Incomparisonwiththesnowmeltseason,theCFSv2showsabetter prediction skill in climatological values but a worse skill in the interannual variability in snowfall season. In addition, theforecasted downward trend of SCF in the snowfall season is opposite to that in the observation. The biases of Eurasian SCF in the snowmelt and snowfall seasons are significantly related with those of temperature and precipitation in the CFSv2. The
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science
Source:

International Journal of Climatology, 36(12), 4071-4084
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4618
ISSN:

0899-8418
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Wiley
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
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Library
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:4caa2dc37a7701b7ffd797b2c5d9b8b7967c1c07c43d71f8e08c141bc83d69c3
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53412/noaa_53412_DS1.pdf
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