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Experimental Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western United States
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2019
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Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(21), 11242-11265
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Journal Title:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
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Description:A multimodel evaluation of subseasonal ‐to‐seasonal (S2S) hindcast skill of atmospheric rivers (ARs) out to 4 ‐week lead over the western United States is presented for three operational hindcast systems: European Centre for Medium ‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Europe), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP; U.S.), and Environment and Canada Climate Change (ECCC; Canada). Ensemble mean biases and Brier Skill Scores are examined for no, moderate, and high levels of AR activity (0, 1 –2, and 3 –7 AR days/week, respectively). All hindcast systems are more skillful in predicting no and high AR activity relative to moderate activity. There are isolated regions of skill at week ‐3 over 150 –125°W, 25 –35°
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Source:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(21), 11242-11265
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ISSN:2169-897X;2169-8996;
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Rights Information:Other
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Compliance:Library
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