Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?
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Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

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Details:

  • Journal Title:
    Geophysical Research Letters
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
  • Description:
    Historical trends in the tropical Paci fic zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inversemodel is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are signi ficant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trendin the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Paci fic, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are notcapturing the observed response of the tropical Paci fic to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Geophysical Research Letters, 44(19), 9928-9937
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0094-8276;1944-8007;
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

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