Megadrought: A Series of Unfortunate La Niña Events?

Carrillo, Carlos M.; Coats, Sloan; Newman, Matt; Herrera, Dimitris A.; Li, Xiaolu; Moore, Rick; Shin, Sang‐Ik; Stevenson, Samantha; Lehner, Flavio; Ault, Toby R.

doi:10.1029/2021jd036376

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i

Megadrought: A Series of Unfortunate La Niña Events?

2022
By Carrillo, Carlos M. ; Coats, Sloan ; Newman, Matt ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(21)

[PDF-2.57 MB]

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Carrillo, Carlos M. ; Coats, Sloan ; Newman, Matt ; Herrera, Dimitris A. ; Li, Xiaolu ; ... More +

Carrillo, Carlos M. ; Coats, Sloan ; Newman, Matt ; Herrera, Dimitris A. ; Li, Xiaolu ; Moore, Rick ; Shin, Sang‐Ik ; Stevenson, Samantha ; Lehner, Flavio ; Ault, Toby R. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Megadroughts are multidecadal periods of aridity more persistent than most droughts during the instrumental period. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that megadroughts occur in many parts of the world, including North America, Central America, western Europe, eastern Asia, and northern Africa. It remains unclear to what extent such megadroughts require external forcing or whether they can arise from internal climate variability alone. A novel statistical–dynamical approach is used to evaluate the possibility that such events arise solely as a function of interannual tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations. A statistical emulator of tropical SST variations is constructed by using an empirical moving-blocks bootstrap approach that
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geophysics Space And Planetary Science
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(21)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jd036376
ISSN:

2169-897X;2169-8996;
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PDF
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Journal Article
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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CC BY-NC-ND
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urn:sha256:8290d0f5f74d36f9e7136e4c4d2f601967c4307efd31b5ff1d5a57886d382932
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52778/noaa_52778_DS1.pdf
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