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Estimation of Systematic Errors in the GFS Using Analysis Increments
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2018
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Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123(3), 1626-1637
[PDF-71.38 MB]
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Journal Title:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
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Description:We estimate the effect of model de ficiencies in the Global Forecast System that lead to systematic forecast errors, as a first step toward correcting them online (i.e., within the model) as in Danforth & Kalnay (2008a, 2008b). Since the analysis increments represent the corrections that newobservations make on the 6 h forecast in the analysis cycle, we estimate the model bias corrections from the time average of the analysis increments divided by 6 h, assuming that initial model errors grow linearly and first ignoring the impact of observation bias. During 2012 –2016, seasonal means of the 6 h model bias are generally robust despite changes in model resolution and data assimilation systems, and their broad continental scales explain their insensitivity to model resolution. The daily bias dominates the submonthly
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Source:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123(3), 1626-1637
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ISSN:2169-897X;2169-8996;
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