Rapid Development of Systematic ENSO‐Related Seasonal Forecast Errors

Beverley, J. D.; Newman, M.; Hoell, A.

doi:10.1029/2022gl102249

i

Rapid Development of Systematic ENSO‐Related Seasonal Forecast Errors

Supporting Files

2023
By Beverley, J. D. ; Newman, M. ; Hoell, A.

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Beverley, J. D. ; Newman, M. ; Hoell, A.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory)
Description:

Climate models exhibit known systematic errors in their representation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we show that such simulation errors are largely present in tropical seasonal prediction, even for short lead times. Regressing monthly forecast errors from 11 different operational models upon the observed ENSO state, we find that predicted ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies (of either sign) for winter/spring are significantly extended or shifted to the west and are also too persistent during the ENSO decay phase, both common climate model errors. There are also corresponding precipitation forecast errors, most notably a robust westward shift of the ENSO-related precipitation dipole that may impact
Keywords:

General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics General Earth And Planetary Sciences General Earth And Planetary Sciences
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 50(10)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102249
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4320101 ; Grant no. NA22OAR4320151
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:c9a393c741b4e100f4fb0d222a8634378438e48491ae069a80ec5a19a0565ac9
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52620/noaa_52620_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 6.40 MB ]

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