A Decade of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME): Research, Application, and Future Directions

Becker, Emily J.; Kirtman, Ben P.; L’Heureux, Michelle; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Pegion, Kathy

doi:10.1175/bams-d-20-0327.1

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A Decade of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME): Research, Application, and Future Directions

2022
By Becker, Emily J. ; Kirtman, Ben P. ; L’Heureux, Michelle ; ...

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Journal Title:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Personal Author:

Becker, Emily J. ; Kirtman, Ben P. ; L’Heureux, Michelle ; Muñoz, Ángel G. ; Pegion, Kathy
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
Description:

Ten years, 16 fully coupled global models, and hundreds of research papers later, the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) monthly-to-seasonal prediction system is looking ahead to its second decade. The NMME comprises both real-time, initialized predictions and a substantial research database; both retrospective and real-time forecasts are archived and freely available for research and development. Many U.S.-based and international entities, both private and public, use NMME data for regional or otherwise tailored forecasts. The system’s built-in evolution, with new models gradually replacing older ones, has been demonstrated to gradually improve the skill of 2-m temperature and sea surface temperature, although precipitation prediction remains a difficult problem. This paper reviews some of the NMME-based contributions to seasonal climate prediction research and applications, progress on scientific understanding of seasonal prediction and multimodel ensembles, and new techniques. Several prediction-oriented aspects are explored, including model representation of observed trends and the underprediction of below-average temperature. We discuss potential new directions, such as higher-resolution models, hybrid statistical–dynamical techniques, or prediction of environmental hazards such as coastal flooding and the risk of mosquito-borne diseases.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science
Source:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(3), E973-E995
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-20-0327.1
ISSN:

0003-0007 ; 1520-0477
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4310275 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4310339
Rights Information:

Other
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Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:c13b3cf9b6e747e224fc49dd9bb3a9a122e9f0cdecb9168c4b048f5e51d37b48
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52580/noaa_52580_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 33.81 MB ]

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