Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting

Bakker, P.; Schmittner, A.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Bi, D.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Chan, W.-L.; Hu, A.; Beadling, R. L.; Marsland, S. J.; Mernild, S. H.; Saenko, O. A.; Swingedouw, D.; Sullivan, A.; Yin, J.

doi:10.1002/2016gl070457

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Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting

2016
By Bakker, P. ; Schmittner, A. ; Lenaerts, J. T. M. ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 43(23), 12,252-12,260

[PDF-3.55 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Bakker, P. ; Schmittner, A. ; Lenaerts, J. T. M. ; Abe-Ouchi, A. ; Bi, D. ; ... More +

Bakker, P. ; Schmittner, A. ; Lenaerts, J. T. M. ; Abe-Ouchi, A. ; Bi, D. ; van den Broeke, M. R. ; Chan, W.-L. ; Hu, A. ; Beadling, R. L. ; Marsland, S. J. ; Mernild, S. H. ; Saenko, O. A. ; Swingedouw, D. ; Sullivan, A. ; Yin, J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in acommunity effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We ﬁnd that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090 –2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [ /C03%,/C034%; 90% probability] in an intermediate
Keywords:

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General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 43(23), 12,252-12,260
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070457
ISSN:

0094-8276
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA15OAR4310239
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urn:sha256:11782a0af3856d3882ceaa30052432cd159be0e713e0d8b6fa88d11cc74a620b
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52535/noaa_52535_DS1.pdf
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