Characteristics of Tornado Events and Warnings in the Southeastern United States

Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K.; Richardson, Yvette P.; Dean, Andrew R.; Thompson, Richard L.; Smith, Bryan T.

doi:10.1175/waf-d-18-0211.1

i

Characteristics of Tornado Events and Warnings in the Southeastern United States

2019
By Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K. ; Richardson, Yvette P. ; Dean, Andrew R.
Source Weather and Forecasting, 34(4), 1017-1034

Details

Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K. ; Richardson, Yvette P. ; Dean, Andrew R. ; Thompson, Richard L. ; Smith, Bryan T.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)
Description:

The southeastern United States has become a prime area of focus in tornado-related literature due, in part, to the abundance of tornadoes occurring in high-shear low-CAPE (HSLC) environments. Through this analysis of 4133 tornado events and 16 429 tornado warnings in the southeastern United States, we find that tornadoes in the Southeast do indeed have, on average, higher shear and lower CAPE than tornadoes elsewhere in the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also examine tornado warning skill in the form of probability of detection (POD; percent of tornadoes receiving warning prior to tornado occurrence) and false alarm ratio (FAR; percent of tornado warnings for which no corresponding tornado is detected), and find that, on average, POD is better and FAR is worse for tornadoes in the Southeast than for the CONUS as a whole. These measures of warning skill remain consistent even when we consider only HSLC tornadoes. The Southeast also has nearly double the CONUS percentage of deadly tornadoes, with the highest percentage of these deadly tornadoes occurring during the spring, the winter, and around local sunset. On average, however, the tornadoes with the lowest POD also tend to be those that are weakest and least likely to be deadly; for the most part, the most dangerous storms are indeed being successfully warned.
Keywords:
- Atmospheric Science
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 34(4), 1017-1034
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0211.1
ISSN:

0882-8156 ; 1520-0434
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4590189
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Library
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52469/noaa_52469_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 3.05 MB]
Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; NOAA Cooperative Institutes
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:3ebe42c3aeccb8144149237b5eec7183e66f2ed432b4cfde6973fe86c2a7f79b

ON THIS PAGE

Details

Found an issue?

Send us an email at:

publishinghd@cdc.gov

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.