Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100

Pielke Jr, Roger; Burgess, Matthew G; Ritchie, Justin

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf

i

Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100

2022
By Pielke Jr, Roger ; Burgess, Matthew G ; Ritchie, Justin
Source Environmental Research Letters, 17(2), 024027

Details

Journal Title:

Environmental Research Letters
Personal Author:

Pielke Jr, Roger ; Burgess, Matthew G ; Ritchie, Justin
NOAA Program & Office:

CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
Description:

Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC’s 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 to 2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2050. These scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 °C. The subset of plausible IPCC scenarios does not represent all possible trajectories of future emissions and warming. Collectively, they project continued mitigation progress and suggest the world is presently on a lower emissions trajectory than is often assumed. However, these scenarios also indicate that the world is still off track from limiting 21st-century warming to 1.5 °C or below 2 °C.
Keywords:
Source:

Environmental Research Letters, 17(2), 024027
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf
ISSN:

1748-9326
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

IOP Publishing
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/52000/noaa_52000_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 8.33 MB]
Collection(s):

NOAA Cooperative Institutes
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:d12ea486b65d9817afcdf0b16a2e05ecd77c79fdbaa19bd8ac2dce8a1834b03f

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