Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time

DeCastro, Amy; Siems-Anderson, Amanda; Smith, Ebone; Knievel, Jason C.; Kosović, Branko; Brown, Barbara G.; Balch, Jennifer K.

doi:10.3390/fire5030058

i

Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time

Supporting Files

2022
By DeCastro, Amy ; Siems-Anderson, Amanda ; Smith, Ebone ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Fire
Personal Author:

DeCastro, Amy ; Siems-Anderson, Amanda ; Smith, Ebone ; Knievel, Jason C. ; Kosović, Branko ; Brown, Barbara G. ; Balch, Jennifer K.
NOAA Program & Office:

CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
Description:

Wildland fire behavior models are often initiated using the detection information listed in incident reports. This information carries an unknown amount of uncertainty, though it is often the most readily available ignition data. To determine the extent to which the use of detection information affects wildland fire forecasts, this research examines the range of burned area values and propagation directions resulting from different initiation point locations and times. We examined the forecasts for ten Colorado 2018 wildland fire case studies, each initiated from a set of 17 different point locations, and three different starting times (a total of 520 case study simulations). The results show that the range of forecast burned area and propagation direction values is strongly affected by the location of the initiation location, and to a lesser degree by the time of initiation.
Keywords:

Building And Construction Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Forestry Safety, Risk, Reliability And Quality Safety Research Building And Construction Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Safety, Risk, Reliability And Quality Building And Construction Safety, Risk, Reliability And Quality
Source:

Fire, 5(3), 58
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3390/fire5030058
ISSN:

2571-6255
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

MDPI AG
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:d7e842f5b40a758ec3d826a97e537476fc248d59a6ccacbb9c1a1f325ff75a89
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/51889/noaa_51889_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 4.94 MB ]

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