Challenges and Opportunities with New Generation Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Datasets for Analyses and Initial Conditions for Forecasting Hurricane Irma (2017) Rapid Intensification Event

Details

• Journal Title:
  Atmosphere
• Personal Author:
  Elsberry, Russell L. ; Feldmeier, Joel W. ; Chen, Hway-Jen ; Peng, Melinda ; Velden, Christopher S. ; Wang, Qing
• NOAA Program & Office:
  CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies)
• Description:
  This study utilizes an extremely high spatial resolution GOES-16 atmospheric motion vector (AMV) dataset processed at 15 min intervals in a modified version of our original dynamic initialization technique to analyze and forecast a rapid intensification (RI) event in Hurricane Irma (2017). The most important modifications are a more time-efficient dynamic initialization technique and adding a near-surface wind field adjustment as a low-level constraint on the distribution of deep convection relative to the translating center. With the new technique, the Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) model initial wind field at 12.86 km elevation quickly adjusts to the cirrus-level GOES-16 AMVs to better detect the Irma outflow magnitude and areal extent every 15 min, and predicts direct connections to adjacent synoptic circulations much better than a dynamic initialization with only lower-resolution hourly GOES-13 AMVs and also better than a cold-start COAMPS-TC initialization with a bogus vortex. Furthermore, only with the GOES-16 AMVs does the COAMPS-TC model accurately predict the timing of an intermediate 12 h constant-intensity period between two segments of the Irma RI. By comparison, HWRF model study of the Irma case that utilized the same GOES-16 AMV dataset predicted a continuous RI without the intermediate constant-intensity period, and predicted more limited outflow areal extents without strong direct connections with adjacent synoptic circulations.
• Keywords:
  Cyclones Geostationary Satellites Hurricane Irma, 2017 Geostationary Satellites
• Source:
  Atmosphere, 11(11), 1200
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111200
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:a0cba0be6d8361c70915c550005a7c0a411616e3b9c6feb84435a5724c6fc1e1
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/51225/noaa_51225_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 13.62 MB ]