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Estimates of the probability of striking a western North Pacific gray whale during the proposed Makah hunt: 2023 update
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2023
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Description:Observations of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) from the western North Pacific (WNP) migrating to areas off the coast of North America (Alaska to Mexico) raised concerns that this small population could be encountered during a hunt of eastern North Pacific (ENP) gray whales proposed by the Makah Indian Tribe in northern Washington, USA. In 2013, an analysis was conducted to estimate the probability of striking (i.e., killing or seriously injuring) a WNP whale under the Makah Tribe’s hunt proposal (Moore and Weller 2013). This analysis was updated (Moore and Weller 2018, 2019) to account for new data and a proposed rule by NOAA Fisheries for governing ENP gray whale hunts by the Makah Tribe for up to 10 years (80 FR 13604, April 5, 2019). Under the proposed regulations, hunting seasons would alternate between winter-spring hunts in one year and summer hunts during the next. It is presumed that only in every other year (for 5 of the 10 years, during winter-spring hunts) would WNP whales potentially be encountered during the hunt. In each of these years, the draft proposal would allow for up to 3 gray whales to be struck. Here, we again re-estimate the probability of striking a WNP whale based on a new (lower) population size estimate for ENP whales and an updated estimate of the likelihood of encountering migrating vs. Pacific Coast feeding group (PCFG) animals during the hunt.
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Rights Information:CC0 Public Domain
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