Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Flood Projections Using A Localized Ocean Reference Surface.

Paoa, Noah; Fletcher, Charles H.; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Coffman, Makena; Habel, Shellie

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-29297-2

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Flood Projections Using A Localized Ocean Reference Surface.

2023
By Paoa, Noah ; Fletcher, Charles H. ; Anderson, Tiffany R. ; ...
Source: Sci Rep 13, 2257

[PDF-3.64 MB]

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Journal Title:

Scientific Reports
Personal Author:

Paoa, Noah ; Fletcher, Charles H. ; Anderson, Tiffany R. ; Coffman, Makena ; Habel, Shellie

Paoa, Noah ; Fletcher, Charles H. ; Anderson, Tiffany R. ; Coffman, Makena ; Habel, Shellie Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

Sea Grant ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)

Sea Grant ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) Less -
Sea Grant Program:

HAWAU (Hawaii Sea Grant)
Description:

Projecting sea level rise (SLR) impacts requires defining ocean surface variability as a source of uncertainty. We analyze ocean surface height data from a Regional Ocean Modeling System reanalysis to produce an ocean reference surface (ORS) as a proxy for the local mean higher high water. This method allows incorporation of ocean surface level uncertainty into bathtub modeling and generation of probability-based projections of SLR-induced flooding. For demonstration, we model the NOAA Intermediate, Intermediate-high and High regional SLR scenarios at three locations on the island of Oʻahu, Hawai’i. We compare 80% probability-based flood projections generated using our approach to those generated using the Tidal Constituents and Residual Interpolation (TCARI) method. TCARI is the predecessor of VDatum, the standard method used by NOAA available only for the continental U.S., Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. For validation, ORS pixel values representing the Honolulu tide gauge location are compared to tide gauge observations. The more realistic distribution of daily higher high water provided by ORS improves projections of SLR-induced flooding for locations where VDatum is not available. We highlight the importance of uncertainty and user-defined probability in identifying locations of flooding and pathways for additional sources of flooding.
Keywords:

[+]

Climatic Changes Natural Hazards Sea Level
Source:

Sci Rep 13, 2257
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29297-2
Format:

PDF
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA22OAR4170108
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:926423685c905c77a778cd93168158da66078bd97edd75e35acbf7acf8e74696
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/50066/noaa_50066_DS1.pdf
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Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Flood Projections Using A Localized Ocean Reference Surface.

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