On the Sources and Sizes of Uncertainty in Predicting the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Using Global MHD Models
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields



Publication Date Range:


Document Data


Document Type:






Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page


On the Sources and Sizes of Uncertainty in Predicting the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Using Global MHD Models

Filetype[PDF-6.84 MB]

Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed


  • Journal Title:
    Space Weather
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    Accurate predictions of the properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME)-driven disturbances are a key objective for space weather forecasts. The ICME's time of arrival (ToA) at Earth is an important parameter, and one that is amenable to a variety of modeling approaches. Previous studies suggest that the best models can predict the arrival time to within an absolute uncertainty of 10–15 h. Here, we investigate the main sources of uncertainty in predicting a CME's ToA at Earth. These can be broken into two main categories: (a) the initial properties of the ejecta, including its speed, mass, and direction of propagation and (b) the properties of the ambient solar wind into which it propagates. To estimate the relative contribution to ToA uncertainties, we construct a set of numerical experiments of cone-model CMEs, where we vary the initial speed, mass, and direction at the inner radial boundary. Additionally, we build an ensemble of 12 ambient solar wind solutions using realizations from the ADAPT model. We find that each component in the chain contributes between ±2.5 and ±7 h of uncertainty to the estimate of the CME's ToA. Importantly, different realizations of the synoptic produce the largest uncertainties. This suggests that estimates of ToA will continue to be plagued with intrinsic uncertainties of ±10 h until tighter constraints can be found for these boundary conditions. Our results suggest that there are clear benefits to focused investigations aimed at reducing the uncertainties in CME speed, mass, direction, and input boundary magnetic fields.
  • Source:
    Space Weather, 19(6)
  • ISSN:
  • Format:
  • Document Type:
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY-NC
  • Compliance:
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files

More +

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov

Version 3.26