Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

Cook, Benjamin I.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Touchan, Ramzi; Meko, David M.; Cook, Edward R.

doi:10.1002/2015jd023929

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i

Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

2016
By Cook, Benjamin I. ; Anchukaitis, Kevin J. ; Touchan, Ramzi ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(5), 2060-2074

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Cook, Benjamin I. ; Anchukaitis, Kevin J. ; Touchan, Ramzi ; Meko, David M. ; Cook, Edward R.

Cook, Benjamin I. ; Anchukaitis, Kevin J. ; Touchan, Ramzi ; Meko, David M. ; Cook, Edward R. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100–2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April–June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January–April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January–March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April–June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multidecadal to centennial timescales and north-south antiphasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, and the Balkans) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15 year drought in the Levant (1998–2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude that there is an 89% likelihood that this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98% likelihood that it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.
Keywords:

[+]

Droughts Paleoclimatology
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(5), 2060-2074
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd023929
ISSN:

2169-897X;2169-8996;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA10OAR4310123
Place as Subject:

Mediterranean Region
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

CHORUS
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:efb396ff314304bbd1a2fda5dad02eefb81b74cb94098a424e9a9d3b7204b510
Download URL:

/view/noaa/49849/noaa_49849_DS1.pdf
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Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

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