Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

doi:10.1002/2016GL069022

i

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

Supporting Files

2016
By Bernstein, Diana N. ; Neelin, J. David

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Bernstein, Diana N. ; Neelin, J. David
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3 mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive “dangerous ranges.” The low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.
Keywords:

Deep Convection Parameterization Global Warming Hydrological Cycle Change Parameter Sensitivity Perturbed Physics Ensemble Regional Precipitation Change Uncertainty Quantification
Source:

Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), 5841–5850
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069022
Format:

PDF
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4310274
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

CHORUS
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:1e9d41acf7a677eb8152762629a1bae4a061fe17314f3a378a882c76e1661d37
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/48636/noaa_48636_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 5.12 MB ]

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