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Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters
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2016
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Source: Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), 5841–5850
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Journal Title:Geophysical Research Letters
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Description:A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3 mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive “dangerous ranges.” The low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.
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Source:Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), 5841–5850
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Rights Information:CC BY-NC-ND
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