Details:

Journal Title:
Journal of Climate
Personal Author:
Liu, M. ; Vecchi, G. A. ; Smith, J. A. ; Murakami, H.
Liu, M. ; Vecchi, G. A. ; Smith, J. A. ; Murakami, H. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:
This study explores the simulations and twenty-first-century projections of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic, with a newly developed global climate model: the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.5 (CM2.5). FLOR exhibits good skill in simulating present-day ET properties (e.g., cyclone phase space parameters). A version of FLOR in which sea surface temperature (SST) biases are artificially corrected through flux-adjustment (FLOR-FA) shows much improved simulation of ET activity (e.g., annual ET number). This result is largely attributable to better simulation of basinwide TC activity, which is strongly dependent on larger-scale climate simulation. FLOR-FA is also used to explore changes of ET activity in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. A contrasting pattern is found in which regional TC density increases in the eastern North Atlantic and decreases in the western North Atlantic, probably due to changes in the TC genesis location. The increasing TC frequency in the eastern Atlantic is dominated by increased ET cases. The increased density of TCs undergoing ET in the eastern subtropics of the Atlantic shows two propagation paths: one moves northwest toward the northeast coast of the United States and the other moves northeast toward western Europe, implying increased TC-related risks in these regions. A more TC-favorable future climate, evident in the projected changes of SST and vertical wind shear, is hypothesized to favor the increased ET occurrence in the eastern North Atlantic.
Keywords:
[+]
Cyclones Prediction
Source:
Journal of Climate, 30(8), 2739-2756
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0352.1
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
Grant no. NA14OAR4830101
Place as Subject:
Atlantic Ocean
Rights Information:
Other
Compliance:
CHORUS
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:8c784e343d868d253da1c951b05e39bba3a3ddd32034c89a47c7bd81773f7a81
Download URL:
https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/48381/noaa_48381_DS1.pdf
File Type:

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