U.S. flag An official website of the United States government.
Official websites use .gov

A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS

A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

i

Statistically and Dynamically Downscaled Calibrated Probabilistic 10-m Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics



Details

  • Journal Title:
    Monthly Weather Review
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    NWS (National Weather Service)
  • Description:
    A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded postprocessing of ensemble 10-m wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF Model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent, high-resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land/water mask. The ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) technique is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. In a yearlong study, the method is applied to 24-h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) at 28 east-central Florida stations. Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicates that the postprocessed forecasts are calibrated. A downscaling case study illustrates the method as applied to a quiescent easterly flow event. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Monthly Weather Review, 146(9), 2859-2880
  • DOI:
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA14NWS4680014
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    CHORUS
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha256:1acc72e3449a5fa9846266ef704a7e8339b7c15aa1699344f9e45ed7ed0261cd
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.85 MB ]
PREVIOUS
ON THIS PAGE
Details
The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
BACK TO TOP