Probabilistic Skill of Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts for the East AfricaWest Asia Sector during SeptemberMay
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Language:

Dates

Publication Date Range:

to

Document Data

Title:

Document Type:

Library

Collection:

Series:

People

Author:

Help
Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Help
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

i

Probabilistic Skill of Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts for the East AfricaWest Asia Sector during SeptemberMay

Filetype[PDF-5.31 MB]


Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed

Details:

  • Journal Title:
    Weather and Forecasting
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    The skill of submonthly forecasts of rainfall over the East Africa–West Asia sector is examined for starts during the extended boreal winter season (September–April) using three ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) project. Forecasts of tercile category probabilities over the common period 1999–2010 are constructed using extended logistic regression (ELR), and a multimodel forecast is formed by averaging individual model probabilities. The calibration of each model separately produces reliable probabilistic weekly forecasts, but these lack sharpness beyond a week lead time. Multimodel ensembling generally improves skill by removing negative skill scores present in individual models. In addition, the multimodel ensemble week-3–4 forecasts have a higher ranked probability skill score and reliability compared to week-3 or week-4 forecasts for starts in February–April, while skill gain is less pronounced for other seasons. During the 1999–2010 period, skill over continental subregions is the highest for starts in February–April and for starts during El Niño conditions and MJO phase 7, which coincides with enhanced forecast probabilities of above-normal rainfall. Overall, these results indicate notable opportunities for the application of skillful subseasonal predictions over the East Africa–West Asia sector during the extended boreal winter season.
  • Source:
    Weather and Forecasting, 33(6), 1513-1532
  • Document Type:
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    CHORUS
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files

More +

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov

Version 3.26