Quantifying the Role of Seasonality in the Marine Carbon Cycle Feedback: An ESM2M Case Study

Fassbender, Andrea J.; Schlunegger, Sarah; Rodgers, Keith B.; Dunne, John P.

doi:10.1029/2021GB007018

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Quantifying the Role of Seasonality in the Marine Carbon Cycle Feedback: An ESM2M Case Study

2022
By Fassbender, Andrea J. ; Schlunegger, Sarah ; Rodgers, Keith B. ; ...
Source: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 36, e2021GB007018
Series: PMEL contribution ; no. 5204

[PDF-1.91 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Personal Author:

Fassbender, Andrea J. ; Schlunegger, Sarah ; Rodgers, Keith B. ; Dunne, John P.

Fassbender, Andrea J. ; Schlunegger, Sarah ; Rodgers, Keith B. ; Dunne, John P. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Observations and climate models indicate that changes in the seasonal amplitude of sea surface carbon dioxide partial pressure (A-pCO2) are underway and driven primarily by anthropogenic carbon (Cant) accumulation in the ocean. This occurs because pCO2 is more responsive to seasonal changes in physics (including warming) and biology in an ocean that contains more Cant. A-pCO2 changes have the potential to alter annual ocean carbon uptake and contribute to the overall marine carbon cycle feedback. Using the GFDL ESM2M Large Ensemble and a novel analysis framework, we quantify the influence of Cant accumulation on pCO2 seasonal cycles and sea-air CO2 fluxes. Specifically, we reconstruct alternative evolutions of the contemporary ocean state in which the sensitivity of pCO2 to seasonal thermal and biophysical variation is fixed at preindustrial levels, however the background, mean-state pCO2 fully responds to anthropogenic forcing. We find near-global A-pCO2 increases of >100% by 2100, under RCP8.5 forcing, with rising Cant accounting for ∼100% of thermal and ∼50% of nonthermal pCO2 component amplitude changes. The other ∼50% of nonthermal pCO2 component changes are attributed to modeled changes in ocean physics and biology caused by climate change. Cant-induced A-pCO2 changes cause an 8.1 ± 0.4% (ensemble mean ± 1σ) increase in ocean carbon uptake by 2100. This is because greater wintertime wind speeds enhance the impact of wintertime pCO2 changes, which work to increase the ocean carbon sink. Thus, the seasonal ocean carbon cycle feedback works in opposition to the larger, mean-state feedback that reduces ocean carbon uptake by ∼60%.
Keywords:

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Carbon Cycle (Biogeochemistry) Climatic Changes Ocean-atmosphere Interaction Air-sea Exchange Atmospheric Science Carbon Cycle Climate Change CO2 Flux Environmental Chemistry Feedbacks General Environmental Science Global And Planetary Change Seasonal Cycle
Source:

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 36, e2021GB007018
Series:

PMEL contribution ; no. 5204
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007018
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:7f09a9534fc46424ab7325ddf2884454036200ac51a6b2e48081a130be6cc5bc
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/47426/noaa_47426_DS1.pdf
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