The influence of extratropical weather regimes on wintertime temperature variations in the Arctic during 1979-2019
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The influence of extratropical weather regimes on wintertime temperature variations in the Arctic during 1979-2019

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  • Journal Title:
    Atmosphere
  • Personal Author:
    Fan, Songmiao ORCID ICON IMG
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    In this study, the Arctic sea ice cover in the sector 30° W–60° E in February, and the monthly mean temperature (averaged over the polar cap north of 70° N and 700–1000 hPa, Tcap) in winter during 1979–2019 were analyzed using established change-point detection methods. Step changes were found in 2004, with lower sea ice cover and higher air temperature during 2005–2019 than 1979–2004 (with Tcap anomalies of 1.05 K and −0.63 K, respectively). Two combinations of weather regimes were associated with the anomalously warm months (1.61 K): (1) Scandinavian trough and Ural blocking, and (2) Atlantic ridge and Ural blocking. The first causes a “polar express” for the poleward transport of heat and moisture from mid-latitude East Europe. The second causes a “two-stage heat pump” that transports heat and moisture from the subarctic Atlantic. Their opposite combinations were associated with the anomalously cold months (−0.73 K), which occurred more frequently during 1979–2004. These trends in weather regimes could account for 25% of the step-change in Arctic winter temperature, with the remainder likely caused by changes in sea ice cover, ocean heat transport, and concentrations of aerosol and greenhouse gases.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Atmosphere 2022, 13(6), 880
  • DOI:
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Place as Subject:
    Arctic
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
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