The influence of extratropical weather regimes on wintertime temperature variations in the Arctic during 1979-2019

Details

• Journal Title:
  Atmosphere
• Personal Author:
  Fan, Songmiao
• NOAA Program & Office:
  GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
• Description:
  In this study, the Arctic sea ice cover in the sector 30° W–60° E in February, and the monthly mean temperature (averaged over the polar cap north of 70° N and 700–1000 hPa, Tcap) in winter during 1979–2019 were analyzed using established change-point detection methods. Step changes were found in 2004, with lower sea ice cover and higher air temperature during 2005–2019 than 1979–2004 (with Tcap anomalies of 1.05 K and −0.63 K, respectively). Two combinations of weather regimes were associated with the anomalously warm months (1.61 K): (1) Scandinavian trough and Ural blocking, and (2) Atlantic ridge and Ural blocking. The first causes a “polar express” for the poleward transport of heat and moisture from mid-latitude East Europe. The second causes a “two-stage heat pump” that transports heat and moisture from the subarctic Atlantic. Their opposite combinations were associated with the anomalously cold months (−0.73 K), which occurred more frequently during 1979–2004. These trends in weather regimes could account for 25% of the step-change in Arctic winter temperature, with the remainder likely caused by changes in sea ice cover, ocean heat transport, and concentrations of aerosol and greenhouse gases.
• Keywords:
  Climatic Changes Weather Climatic Changes
• Source:
  Atmosphere 2022, 13(6), 880
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060880
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  Arctic
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:235528a62ba3485f646bd3d455e2965b4f0950a523708db1445de158fa8d482a
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/46498/noaa_46498_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 6.38 MB ]