Model spread in the tropical cyclone frequency and seed propensity index across global warming and ENSO-like perturbations

Hsieh, Tsung‐Lin; Yang, Wenchang; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhao, Ming

doi:10.1029/2021GL097157

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Model spread in the tropical cyclone frequency and seed propensity index across global warming and ENSO-like perturbations

2022
By Hsieh, Tsung‐Lin ; Yang, Wenchang ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL097157

[PDF-1011.37 KB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Hsieh, Tsung‐Lin ; Yang, Wenchang ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; Zhao, Ming

Hsieh, Tsung‐Lin ; Yang, Wenchang ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; Zhao, Ming Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:

The future projection of tropical cyclone frequency is highly uncertain. Recent multi-model studies showed that the model spread in tropical cyclones is correlated with the model spread in seeds, which are defined as convective weak vortices. However, it was unclear how the model spread is related to the large-scale circulation. Here we apply a downscaling theory recently developed using aquaplanet experiments to explain the seed frequency across four global atmospheric models having different parameterizations of convection and resolutions. The seed frequency has a larger model spread in response to uniform warming than to CO2 doubling or El Niño/La Niña-like sea surface temperature perturbations. Across all climate perturbations, the seed frequency is captured by the downscaling theory, expressed as a seed propensity index. The index highlights the connection between the tropical cyclone seeds and the climatological mean ascent pattern.
Keywords:

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Climatic Changes Cyclones
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL097157
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097157
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4310418 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4310273

Grant no. NA18OAR4310418 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4310273 Less -
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:5cc83b584ae471c350d5fcfcd4c7c713383f9b3937e6faab973c8e19a4c5e762
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/46408/noaa_46408_DS1.pdf
File Type:

	atmospheric-model	htm
	Avaialble dataset (ERA5)	htm
	Python scripts	htm

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